The model’s 3 km resolution is significant because it means scientists do not need to use parameterization schemes—a method used to predict the collective effects of many clouds that might exist within a grid box—in the model.
Parameterizations often result in models that underestimate a storm’s intensity, says Brian Etherton, a senior atmospheric scientist at RENCI. Storm intensity also affects the storm track, so RENCI’s model predicts a somewhat different track than the models run by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the National Weather Service division that provides most of the commonly used forecasting products.
“Our model shows Earl coming closer to the coast than the NCEP forecasts,” says Etherton. “The National Weather Service offices in Raleigh, Wilmington and Morehead City are all looking at our output. It is a research tool that we can compare to other models. When the storm is over we can evaluate our model and its value in predicting the track and intensity of Earl.”
The high reolution WRF model was developed in collaboration with Gary Lackmann, an atmospheric scientist at North Carolina State University.
In addition to the WRF model, RENCI scientists are modeling coastal storm surge and waves associated with Hurricane Earl. Those models show that waves up to 4 meters high (more than 12 feet) might occur off the North Carolina coast by Friday. The models will also show storm surge, or the height of water pushed inland by the storm, as the storm moves closer to North Carolina.
All the models are run twice a day using RENCI’s Dell/Intel supercomputer Blue Ridge, which is capable of 8 trillion calculations per second.
View animated loop of Earl’s track: http://www.sensordatabus.org/wrf/Pages/HurNCImagesLoops.aspxAbout RENCI
Karen Green | Newswise Science News
Ice cave in Transylvania yields window into region's past
28.04.2017 | National Science Foundation
Citizen science campaign to aid disaster response
28.04.2017 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
More and more automobile companies are focusing on body parts made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). However, manufacturing and repair costs must be further reduced in order to make CFRP more economical in use. Together with the Volkswagen AG and five other partners in the project HolQueSt 3D, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) has developed laser processes for the automatic trimming, drilling and repair of three-dimensional components.
Automated manufacturing processes are the basis for ultimately establishing the series production of CFRP components. In the project HolQueSt 3D, the LZH has...
Reflecting the structure of composites found in nature and the ancient world, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have synthesized thin carbon nanotube (CNT) textiles that exhibit both high electrical conductivity and a level of toughness that is about fifty times higher than copper films, currently used in electronics.
"The structural robustness of thin metal films has significant importance for the reliable operation of smart skin and flexible electronics including...
The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.
Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...
The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...
Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.
Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...
28.04.2017 | Event News
20.04.2017 | Event News
18.04.2017 | Event News
28.04.2017 | Medical Engineering
28.04.2017 | Earth Sciences
28.04.2017 | Life Sciences