How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? The Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. Dr. Klaus Dethloff from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI) have evaluated 23 climate models and published their results in the current issue of the international scientific journal Tellus A.
Their conclusion: there is still a long way to go before reliable regional predictions can be made on seasonal to decadal time scales. None of the models evaluated is able today to forecast the weather-determining patterns of high and low pressure areas such that the probability of a cold winter or a dry summer can be reliably predicted.
The most important questions currently being asked in climate research concern the impact of global climate change regionally and in the medium term. These are the subjects of national and international research programmes and will play a large role in the next world climate report because societies having to adjust to climatic changes should know which specific changes they must expect. For the energy or agricultural sector, for example, it would be enormously important to know if the weather conditions prevailing in a region in the medium term could be reliably predicted. Against this background, the prediction quality of current climate models for the period of seasons to a decade is of great importance.
“Climate researchers throughout the world are currently working on increasing the resolution of their models and the performance of their climate computers”, says AWI researcher Dörthe Handorf in describing an obvious and important possibility of further improving the medium-term prediction quality of climate models. This enables climatic changes to be reproduced on a smaller spatial and temporal scale. “But it will not be enough to increase the pure computer power”, says the Potsdam scientist who has worked on questions of climate variability since 1997. “We must continue to work on understanding the basic processes and interactions in this complicated system called “atmosphere”. Even a high power computer reaches its limits if the mathematical equations of a climate model do not describe the real processes accurately enough.”
The Arctic plays a key role in optimising climate models. It is one of the most important drivers of our climate and weather and is at the same time one of the regions in which the climate is currently changing the most. The “High North” is also so inhospitable that data on the Arctic is sparse. Future research work of the Potsdam scientists therefore goes in two directions. Firstly, they are developing a climate model which can resolve the small-scale, weather-determining processes in the Arctic particularly well. The TORUS project is funded by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) as part of the “MiKlip – A Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction” research programme and coordinated by Dörthe Handorf. However, since model improvements are only possible if comprehensive data records in high quality are available, a large international field campaign is planned in the Arctic for the period 2018-2019. It will demand a lot from the participating scientists because part of the field campaign is to be an international Arctic drift station in which a team of researchers will drift through the Arctic Ocean with the sea ice in the Arctic winter for several months.
The Alfred Wegener Institute conducts research in the Arctic and Antarctic as well as in the high and mid latitude oceans. The Institute coordinates German polar research and provides important infrastructure such as the research icebreaker Polarstern and research stations in the Arctic and Antarctic to the national and international scientific world. The Alfred Wegener Institute is one of eighteen research centres in the Helmholtz Association, the largest scientific organisation in Germany.
Ralf Röchert | idw
Receding glaciers in Bolivia leave communities at risk
20.10.2016 | European Geosciences Union
UM researchers study vast carbon residue of ocean life
19.10.2016 | University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
Researchers from the Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC) at the University of Waterloo led the development of a new extensible wiring technique capable of controlling superconducting quantum bits, representing a significant step towards to the realization of a scalable quantum computer.
"The quantum socket is a wiring method that uses three-dimensional wires based on spring-loaded pins to address individual qubits," said Jeremy Béjanin, a PhD...
In a paper in Scientific Reports, a research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute describes a novel light-activated phenomenon that could become the basis for applications as diverse as microscopic robotic grippers and more efficient solar cells.
A research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) has developed a revolutionary, light-activated semiconductor nanocomposite material that can be used...
By forcefully embedding two silicon atoms in a diamond matrix, Sandia researchers have demonstrated for the first time on a single chip all the components needed to create a quantum bridge to link quantum computers together.
"People have already built small quantum computers," says Sandia researcher Ryan Camacho. "Maybe the first useful one won't be a single giant quantum computer...
COMPAMED has become the leading international marketplace for suppliers of medical manufacturing. The trade fair, which takes place every November and is co-located to MEDICA in Dusseldorf, has been steadily growing over the past years and shows that medical technology remains a rapidly growing market.
In 2016, the joint pavilion by the IVAM Microtechnology Network, the Product Market “High-tech for Medical Devices”, will be located in Hall 8a again and will...
'Ferroelectric' materials can switch between different states of electrical polarization in response to an external electric field. This flexibility means they show promise for many applications, for example in electronic devices and computer memory. Current ferroelectric materials are highly valued for their thermal and chemical stability and rapid electro-mechanical responses, but creating a material that is scalable down to the tiny sizes needed for technologies like silicon-based semiconductors (Si-based CMOS) has proven challenging.
Now, Hiroshi Funakubo and co-workers at the Tokyo Institute of Technology, in collaboration with researchers across Japan, have conducted experiments to...
14.10.2016 | Event News
14.10.2016 | Event News
12.10.2016 | Event News
24.10.2016 | Power and Electrical Engineering
24.10.2016 | Life Sciences
24.10.2016 | Life Sciences