Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Corn Yield Prediction Model Uses Simple Measurements at a Specific Growth Stage

04.07.2013
The ability to predict corn yields would benefit farmers as they plan the sale of their crops and biofuel industries as they plan their operations.

A new study published in the July-August issue of Agronomy Journal describes a robust model that uses easily obtained measurements, such as plant morphology and precipitation, collected specifically at the silking growth stage of the plant. The new model could help both growers and industry maximize their profits and efficiency.


Photo courtesy of Spyridon Mourtzinis.
Measuring the stem diameter of corn crops.

Forecasting crop yield can be extremely useful for farmers. If they have an idea of the amount of yield they can expect, they can contract their corn prior to harvest, often securing a more competitive price than if they were to wait until after harvest. Likewise, industry can benefit from yield predictions by better planning the logistics of their business. But dependable forecasts can be difficult to find.

Several methods of predicting and modeling crop yields have been used in the past with varying success. Statistical models often don’t take into account characteristics of the plants, the weather, or the management practices limiting their usefulness. Some models are based on information from just a single year or location.

“When you develop a model using single location or year data, it will have limited practical applications,” explains Spyridon Mourtzinis, lead author of the study. “You don’t include variability from multiple environments.”

The new study from Mourtzinis and his co-authors from Auburn University found a more robust model for predicting both corn grain and stover yield. The model uses equations calculated with information about nitrogen fertilization rates, precipitation, and plant morphology, such as plant height, stem diameter, height of the first ear, number of forming ears, and plant population.

“Previous attempts were mainly looking at weather factors,” says Francisco Arriaga, co-author of the study and now an assistant professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “This approach has other factors included in the model, and that is an important strength.”

The timing of the measurements is also an important aspect of the model. Mourtzinis took weekly measurements from over 100 plots throughout the growing season to find the best window during which to collect data to be used in the equations. The time-consuming work paid off.

“We looked at all the vegetative states to see which one was best, and it turned out to be the R1 growth stage,” explains Arriaga. “Other models tried to take measurements earlier, but that may be why they had poor results. Things change as the season goes by, and the stage we found was the critical one.”

The R1 or silking growth stage, when silks are first visible outside the husks, is about two to two and half months before harvest. This model, then, would provide predictions early enough to affect crop prices and to allow industries to plan their operations. While even earlier predictions might be possible, they would depend on better forecasting of weather, which can greatly affect yields. Weather changes significantly throughout the growing season, and current forecasts are not dependable.

Another reason that the new model is robust is because data was collected at two different sites in Alabama over three years. The equations used in the current model, then, translated over six sets of data suggesting that it could be used in a variety of environments. Whether that is true is a goal of future experiments.

“It would be interesting to test the equations across a lot more environments now that we know which growth stage to target,” says Arriaga.

Future studies will also test the model with other corn hybrids and management practices. As more data is collected from a variety of environments and growing conditions, the authors are hopeful that the model will continue to be an accurate predictor of corn yield.

“We need to be open-minded,” says Mourtzinis. “The equations might change a bit when we get more data from more environments, but I think we can build on the current model.”

View the abstract at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.2134/agronj2012.0393

To obtain a copy of the complete article, please contact Madeline Fisher at 608-268-3973, mfisher@sciencesocieties.org or Caroline Schneider at 608-268-3976, cschneider@sciencesocieties.org.

Spyridon Mourtzinis
szm0020@tigermail.auburn.edu
The full article is available for no charge for 30 days following the date of this summary. View the abstract at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.2134/agronj2012.0393.

A peer-reviewed international journal of agriculture and natural resource sciences, Agronomy Journal is published six times a year by the American Society of Agronomy, with articles relating to original research in soil science, crop science, agroclimatology and agronomic modeling, production agriculture, and software. For more information visit: www.agronomy.org/publications/aj

The American Society of Agronomy (ASA) www.agronomy.org, is a scientific society helping its 8,000+ members advance the disciplines and practices of agronomy by supporting professional growth and science policy initiatives, and by providing quality, research-based publications and a variety of member services.

Madeline Fisher | Newswise
Further information:
http://www.agronomy.org

Further reports about: Agronomy Stage Acting biofuel industries crop yield growing season

More articles from Agricultural and Forestry Science:

nachricht Ammonium nitrogen input increases the synthesis of anticarcinogenic compounds in broccoli
26.04.2017 | University of the Basque Country

nachricht New data unearths pesticide peril in beehives
21.04.2017 | Cornell University

All articles from Agricultural and Forestry Science >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Making lightweight construction suitable for series production

More and more automobile companies are focusing on body parts made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). However, manufacturing and repair costs must be further reduced in order to make CFRP more economical in use. Together with the Volkswagen AG and five other partners in the project HolQueSt 3D, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) has developed laser processes for the automatic trimming, drilling and repair of three-dimensional components.

Automated manufacturing processes are the basis for ultimately establishing the series production of CFRP components. In the project HolQueSt 3D, the LZH has...

Im Focus: Wonder material? Novel nanotube structure strengthens thin films for flexible electronics

Reflecting the structure of composites found in nature and the ancient world, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have synthesized thin carbon nanotube (CNT) textiles that exhibit both high electrical conductivity and a level of toughness that is about fifty times higher than copper films, currently used in electronics.

"The structural robustness of thin metal films has significant importance for the reliable operation of smart skin and flexible electronics including...

Im Focus: Deep inside Galaxy M87

The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.

Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...

Im Focus: A Quantum Low Pass for Photons

Physicists in Garching observe novel quantum effect that limits the number of emitted photons.

The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...

Im Focus: Microprocessors based on a layer of just three atoms

Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.

Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Expert meeting “Health Business Connect” will connect international medical technology companies

20.04.2017 | Event News

Wenn der Computer das Gehirn austrickst

18.04.2017 | Event News

7th International Conference on Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaics in Freiburg on April 3-5, 2017

03.04.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Scientist invents way to trigger artificial photosynthesis to clean air

26.04.2017 | Materials Sciences

Ammonium nitrogen input increases the synthesis of anticarcinogenic compounds in broccoli

26.04.2017 | Agricultural and Forestry Science

SwRI-led team discovers lull in Mars' giant impact history

26.04.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>