Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Targeted investments in climate science could present enormous economic savings for UK and Europe

21.08.2009
A joint press release issued by the UK's National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the Walker Institute, University of Reading

Targeted investments in climate science could lead to major benefits in reducing the costs of adapting to a changing climate, according to new research published by scientists from the UK's National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS). Published in the scientific journal, the Bulletin for the American Meteorological Society, the study shows that investments made now, can lead to as much as 10-20% improvement in climate predictions for the UK and Europe in the coming decades, and up to 20% across the rest of the globe.

This is good news for businesses and policy-makers currently seeking predictions to aid planning for adaptation to climate change in the coming years, and for whom such improvements could present enormous economic savings: uncertainty in climate forecasts means that adaptation measures have to be designed with greater resilience, making them more expensive.

The results came after the researchers, based at the Walker Institute, University of Reading, used data from a suite of state-of-the-art climate models to identify the main causes of uncertainty in predictions of temperature change over different space and time scales. Although this type of study had previously been done on a global scale, this is the first time it has been attempted on regional scales (2000 km) across the globe.

Results showed that for all regions for the next four decades, the main uncertainties in climate predictions are dominated by: (i) differences between the climate models themselves eg in the way they represent different atmospheric processes; (ii) the natural variability of the climate (ie changes in the climate not brought about by human influences). Fortunately, both types of uncertainty are reducible through investment and progress in climate science.

An important issue for planners and funding agencies, therefore, is how climate science can best deliver improvements in such predictions, and so reduce the costs of adaptation to a changing climate.

Dr Hawkins, lead scientist on this project said: "A certain amount of climate change is inevitable, and we will need to adapt. This work has highlighted the need for a debate about where best to target investment in climate science and to consider the return we get in terms of better climate forecasts and reduced adaptation costs."

"Our work suggests that investments in ocean observations, for example, and their use in setting the initial conditions of climate models and in verifying predictions, could give some of the best returns in improved models and climate forecasts for the next 5-50 years. It is not until the 2050s that the dominant uncertainty is in the unknown future emissions of greenhouse gases. "

Issues such as these will also be debated at the World Climate Conference-3 in Geneva at the end of this month, where the focus will be on climate predictions and information for decision-making. Senior scientists, including Professor Rowan Sutton, Director of Climate Research for NCAS and a co-author on the study, will be attending to provide scientific advice and expertise, and stakeholders and government representatives will all meet with the aim to create a global framework to link scientific advances in climate prediction with the needs of users such as farmers and water managers. The conference is only the third of its kind in the last 30 years.

1. Contacts:

Dr Louisa Watts, National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Science Communications Manager. Mobile (+44) (0)7795061124 or Desk +44 (0)1793 411609. Email: NCAScomms@nerc.ac.ukThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

Dr Lucy Chappell, Research Communications Manager, University of Reading. Mobile 07515 188751 or Desk: +44 (0)118 378 7391. Email: l.chappell@reading.ac.ukThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2. Available for Interview:

Dr Ed Hawkins, lead scientist of this study and climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) is available for interview. To set up an interview please contact Dr Louisa Watts or Lucy Chappell on contact numbers above.

3. The published paper has the following reference and is available online:

Hawkins E.and Sutton R, 2009: (Title) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions, Bulletin for the American Meteorological Society doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

The paper is available online from the following link http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 and the results webpage .

4. The World Climate Conference-3 is being held between 31st August and 3rd September 2009, in Geneva, Switzerland. Organised through the World Meteorological Organization, the overarching theme of the Conference is "Climate prediction and information for decision-making: focusing on scientific advances in seasonal to inter-annual time-scales, taking into account multi-decadal prediction". It includes the application of climate prediction and information to societal problems enabling adaptation to climate variability and change in various sectors such as agriculture and food security, forestry, energy, water, health, urban and rural settlements, infrastructure, tourism, wildlife, trade and transport that contribute to sustainable socio-economic development.

World Climate Conference-3 website

Professor Rowan Sutton, Director of the NCAS Climate research programme will be attending to provide expertise in climate variability on decadal timescales.

5. The National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) is a world leader in atmospheric science. With an annual budget of £9M, NCAS carries out research programmes in climate change science, atmospheric composition (including air quality), weather (including hazardous weather) and state-of-the-art technologies for observing and modelling the atmosphere (including a world-leading research aircraft). We have over 170 research scientists, including UK and world experts to work on our research programmes and provide support to the academic community. These programmes are distributed throughout the UK, at 15 UK universities and research institutes. NCAS is a research centre of the Natural Environment Research Council with its headquarters at the University of Leeds.

www.ncas.ac.uk

6. The Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading
The Walker Institute is a world-leading multi-disciplinary climate research centre based at the University of Reading. Over 100 scientists from internationally renowned research groups and centres across the University collaborate on research projects worth over £20 million. The research aims to understand the processes and feedbacks that operate within and between components of the climate system and which govern climate variability and change. We strive to improve predictions of climate for the coming decades by building better models and making better use of observations. Our research also assesses the impacts of climate change on the economy and society and the implications for adaptation and mitigation. Associates of the Walker Institute work in such diverse areas as agriculture, biological sciences, chemistry, construction management, business, environmental science, maths, meteorology and physics.

Dr. Louisa Watts | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.walker-institute.ac.uk
http://www.ncas.ac.uk

More articles from Studies and Analyses:

nachricht New study: How does Europe become a leading player for software and IT services?
03.04.2017 | Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI)

nachricht Reusable carbon nanotubes could be the water filter of the future, says RIT study
30.03.2017 | Rochester Institute of Technology

All articles from Studies and Analyses >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Making lightweight construction suitable for series production

More and more automobile companies are focusing on body parts made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). However, manufacturing and repair costs must be further reduced in order to make CFRP more economical in use. Together with the Volkswagen AG and five other partners in the project HolQueSt 3D, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) has developed laser processes for the automatic trimming, drilling and repair of three-dimensional components.

Automated manufacturing processes are the basis for ultimately establishing the series production of CFRP components. In the project HolQueSt 3D, the LZH has...

Im Focus: Wonder material? Novel nanotube structure strengthens thin films for flexible electronics

Reflecting the structure of composites found in nature and the ancient world, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have synthesized thin carbon nanotube (CNT) textiles that exhibit both high electrical conductivity and a level of toughness that is about fifty times higher than copper films, currently used in electronics.

"The structural robustness of thin metal films has significant importance for the reliable operation of smart skin and flexible electronics including...

Im Focus: Deep inside Galaxy M87

The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.

Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...

Im Focus: A Quantum Low Pass for Photons

Physicists in Garching observe novel quantum effect that limits the number of emitted photons.

The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...

Im Focus: Microprocessors based on a layer of just three atoms

Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.

Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Expert meeting “Health Business Connect” will connect international medical technology companies

20.04.2017 | Event News

Wenn der Computer das Gehirn austrickst

18.04.2017 | Event News

7th International Conference on Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaics in Freiburg on April 3-5, 2017

03.04.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Scientist invents way to trigger artificial photosynthesis to clean air

26.04.2017 | Materials Sciences

Ammonium nitrogen input increases the synthesis of anticarcinogenic compounds in broccoli

26.04.2017 | Agricultural and Forestry Science

SwRI-led team discovers lull in Mars' giant impact history

26.04.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>