Although estimates have been adjusted downward in light of the most recent data, researchers still predict sharp increases in the U.S. incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the years ahead, according to a paper being presented at the American Society of Nephrology's 40th Annual Meeting and Scientific Exposition in San Francisco.
"The expected number of patients with ESRD in 2020 is almost 785,000, which is an increase of over 60 percent compared to 2005," comments Dr. David T. Gilbertson of the U.S. Renal Data System (USRDS) and the Minneapolis Medical Research Foundation, Minneapolis, Minn. Using data available through 2005, the study updates previous estimates based on data through 2000. The researchers used statistical techniques to project available data on the ESRD population to the year 2020. The model took into account a wide range of factors, including expected trends in population growth and the rising rate of diabetes—the main cause of kidney disease. The study also incorporated the latest data on the risk of progression to ESRD once kidney disease is present.
Based on the results, Dr. Gilbertson and colleagues predict that the U.S. incidence (number of new cases) of ESRD will be about 135,000 in 2015. This figure is about 3,000 lower than the previous estimate. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the incidence of ESRD has been decreasing in recent years, and the updated figure accounts for that trend. The predicted prevalence (total number of cases) of ESRD in 2015 is estimated at 680,000—about 33,000 less than the previous estimate.
Nevertheless, based on a combination of trends—including the aging of the "Baby Boomer" population, rising diabetes rates, and improvements kidney disease treatment allowing better survival—the authors project continued increases in numbers of Americans affected by ESRD.
By 2020, the incidence 1725 I Street NW . Suite 510 . Washington, DC 20006 Tel 202-659-0599 . Fax 202-659-0709 . www.asn-online.org The American Society of Nephrology®, ASN®, Renal Week®, CJASN®, JASN®, and NephSAP® are registered trademarks of the American Society of Nephrology. (new cases) of ESRD is expected to rise to 151,000 per year (compared to 107,000 in 2005). Prevalence (all cases) is expected to increase to 785,000 (compared to 485,000 in 2005). "These projections play an important role in shaping public health policy and health care planning related to the treatment of kidney disease," says Dr. Gilbertson. "Medicare pays for the care for the vast majority of patients with ESRD, with costs approaching $60,000 per year for every patient."
The predictions suggest that, despite recent declines in new cases, policymakers should account for continued increases in the health and economic impact of ESRD in the United States. "While relatively flat ESRD incidence rates may show some progress towards Healthy People 2010 goals of reducing ESRD incidence, it is important to know the expected future counts of patients, as opposed to rates, to inform public health policy and health care planning related to the treatment of kidney disease," Dr. Gilbertson says. "The financial and human resources that will be needed to care for these patients in 2020 will be considerable."
The study abstract, "Projecting the ESRD Population to 2020," (SA-FC046) will be presented as part of a Free Communications session on the topic of “Epidemiology and Consequences of Chronic Kidney Disease” on Saturday, November 3 at 4:00 PM in Room 2009 of the Moscone Center.
The ASN is a not-for-profit organization of 10,500 physicians and scientists dedicated to the study of nephrology and committed to providing a forum for the promulgation of information regarding the latest research and clinical findings on kidney diseases. ASN’s Renal Week 2007, the largest nephrology meeting of its kind, will provide a forum for 11,000 nephrologists, to discuss the latest findings in renal research and engage in educational sessions relating advances in the care of patients with kidney and related disorders from October 31 – November 5 at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, CA.
The American Society of Nephrology®, ASN®, Renal Week®, CJASN®, JASN®, and NephSAP® are registered trademarks of the American Society of Nephrology.
Shari Leventhal | EurekAlert!
The personality factor: How to foster the sharing of research data
06.09.2017 | ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Europe’s Demographic Future. Where the Regions Are Heading after a Decade of Crises
10.08.2017 | Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung
Controlling electronic current is essential to modern electronics, as data and signals are transferred by streams of electrons which are controlled at high speed. Demands on transmission speeds are also increasing as technology develops. Scientists from the Chair of Laser Physics and the Chair of Applied Physics at Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU) have succeeded in switching on a current with a desired direction in graphene using a single laser pulse within a femtosecond ¬¬ – a femtosecond corresponds to the millionth part of a billionth of a second. This is more than a thousand times faster compared to the most efficient transistors today.
Graphene is up to the job
At the productronica trade fair in Munich this November, the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology ILT will be presenting Laser-Based Tape-Automated Bonding, LaserTAB for short. The experts from Aachen will be demonstrating how new battery cells and power electronics can be micro-welded more efficiently and precisely than ever before thanks to new optics and robot support.
Fraunhofer ILT from Aachen relies on a clever combination of robotics and a laser scanner with new optics as well as process monitoring, which it has developed...
Plants and algae use the enzyme Rubisco to fix carbon dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere and converting it into biomass. Algae have figured out a way to increase the efficiency of carbon fixation. They gather most of their Rubisco into a ball-shaped microcompartment called the pyrenoid, which they flood with a high local concentration of carbon dioxide. A team of scientists at Princeton University, the Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University and the Max Plank Institute of Biochemistry have unravelled the mysteries of how the pyrenoid is assembled. These insights can help to engineer crops that remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere while producing more food.
A warming planet
Our brains house extremely complex neuronal circuits, whose detailed structures are still largely unknown. This is especially true for the so-called cerebral cortex of mammals, where among other things vision, thoughts or spatial orientation are being computed. Here the rules by which nerve cells are connected to each other are only partly understood. A team of scientists around Moritz Helmstaedter at the Frankfiurt Max Planck Institute for Brain Research and Helene Schmidt (Humboldt University in Berlin) have now discovered a surprisingly precise nerve cell connectivity pattern in the part of the cerebral cortex that is responsible for orienting the individual animal or human in space.
The researchers report online in Nature (Schmidt et al., 2017. Axonal synapse sorting in medial entorhinal cortex, DOI: 10.1038/nature24005) that synapses in...
Whispering gallery mode (WGM) resonators are used to make tiny micro-lasers, sensors, switches, routers and other devices. These tiny structures rely on a...
19.09.2017 | Event News
12.09.2017 | Event News
06.09.2017 | Event News
26.09.2017 | Life Sciences
26.09.2017 | Physics and Astronomy
26.09.2017 | Information Technology