Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Climate may increase heat-related deaths by 2050s

01.10.2007
Mailman School of Public Health researchers estimate a 47 percent to 95 percent increase in summer heat-related deaths in New York City region

While some uncertainty does exist in climate projections and future health vulnerability, overall increases in heat-related premature mortality are likely by the 2050s, according to a recent study by Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health and soon to be published in the November 2007 issue of the American Journal of Public Health. In metropolitan New York, researchers estimate a 47 percent to 95 percent increase in summer heat-related deaths when compared to the 1990s.

Recent reports strongly suggest that both emissions and warming trends will continue to affect the atmosphere into the 21st century, with annual average temperatures for the region in the 2050s projected to rise by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit to 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and summer temperature increasing 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit to 7.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

“These new results indicate that climate change will put additional stress on the health of New York residents in the absence of concerted efforts to reduce vulnerability to heat waves,” says Patrick Kinney ScD, associate professor of Environmental Health Sciences at the Mailman School of Public Health, who designed and directed the study. The research findings also indicate that urban counties will experience greater numbers of deaths than less-urbanized counties. Currently, counties experiencing the hottest summers are the highly urbanized counties in and around New York City, which also have the greatest population density. Millions of residents are already exposed to periodic summer heat stress, which can lead to increases in heat-related illness and premature deaths. Cities such as New York may be at particular risk from climate change because the “urban heat island effect” further increases regional temperatures, and some communities in densely populated urban centers are among those most vulnerable to heat.

“The relatively large percentage of households who live in poverty or in older residential neighborhoods in New York City where multifamily rental buildings often do not haveair conditioning may enhance urban population vulnerability to heat stress,” says Kim Knowlton, DrPH, assistant clinical professor of Environmental Health Sciences, science fellow on global warming and health at the Natural Resources Defense Council, and first author. “Although temperatures are projected to warm considerably in the urban core by the 2050s, our global-to-regional model results suggest that the greatest increases in mean daily temperatures relative to the 1990s will occur in the nonurban counties well beyond the city limits of the five boroughs of New York City.”

The diverse urban population of New York includes millions of residents aged 65 years and older or with cardiovascular or respiratory illness, risk factors that increase vulnerability to summer heat stress. With the aging of the baby boomers, the proportion of the U.S. population aged 65 years and older is expected to increase until 2020, placing additional millions among those most vulnerable to heat stress. “Because this study did not factor in the future growth in population that is projected for New York City and which will expose even more New Yorkers to sweltering summer heat, it can be argued that the population constant method provides a conservative projection of possible future climate-related changes in temperature-related mortality,” noted Dr. Knowlton.

Stephanie Berger | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.columbia.edu
http://www.mailman.hs.columbia.edu

More articles from Studies and Analyses:

nachricht Win-win strategies for climate and food security
02.10.2017 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

nachricht The personality factor: How to foster the sharing of research data
06.09.2017 | ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft

All articles from Studies and Analyses >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Neutron star merger directly observed for the first time

University of Maryland researchers contribute to historic detection of gravitational waves and light created by event

On August 17, 2017, at 12:41:04 UTC, scientists made the first direct observation of a merger between two neutron stars--the dense, collapsed cores that remain...

Im Focus: Breaking: the first light from two neutron stars merging

Seven new papers describe the first-ever detection of light from a gravitational wave source. The event, caused by two neutron stars colliding and merging together, was dubbed GW170817 because it sent ripples through space-time that reached Earth on 2017 August 17. Around the world, hundreds of excited astronomers mobilized quickly and were able to observe the event using numerous telescopes, providing a wealth of new data.

Previous detections of gravitational waves have all involved the merger of two black holes, a feat that won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics earlier this month....

Im Focus: Smart sensors for efficient processes

Material defects in end products can quickly result in failures in many areas of industry, and have a massive impact on the safe use of their products. This is why, in the field of quality assurance, intelligent, nondestructive sensor systems play a key role. They allow testing components and parts in a rapid and cost-efficient manner without destroying the actual product or changing its surface. Experts from the Fraunhofer IZFP in Saarbrücken will be presenting two exhibits at the Blechexpo in Stuttgart from 7–10 November 2017 that allow fast, reliable, and automated characterization of materials and detection of defects (Hall 5, Booth 5306).

When quality testing uses time-consuming destructive test methods, it can result in enormous costs due to damaging or destroying the products. And given that...

Im Focus: Cold molecules on collision course

Using a new cooling technique MPQ scientists succeed at observing collisions in a dense beam of cold and slow dipolar molecules.

How do chemical reactions proceed at extremely low temperatures? The answer requires the investigation of molecular samples that are cold, dense, and slow at...

Im Focus: Shrinking the proton again!

Scientists from the Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics, using high precision laser spectroscopy of atomic hydrogen, confirm the surprisingly small value of the proton radius determined from muonic hydrogen.

It was one of the breakthroughs of the year 2010: Laser spectroscopy of muonic hydrogen resulted in a value for the proton charge radius that was significantly...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

ASEAN Member States discuss the future role of renewable energy

17.10.2017 | Event News

World Health Summit 2017: International experts set the course for the future of Global Health

10.10.2017 | Event News

Climate Engineering Conference 2017 Opens in Berlin

10.10.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Terahertz spectroscopy goes nano

20.10.2017 | Information Technology

Strange but true: Turning a material upside down can sometimes make it softer

20.10.2017 | Materials Sciences

NRL clarifies valley polarization for electronic and optoelectronic technologies

20.10.2017 | Interdisciplinary Research

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>