Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

UGA study underscores importance of rapid reponse in curtailing disease outbreaks

08.01.2007
A new University of Georgia study suggests that rapid detection combined with aggressive education can dramatically curtail outbreaks of emerging infectious disease such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

John Drake, assistant professor in the UGA Institute of Ecology, has created a mathematical model that takes into account how factors such as the speed at which information is gathered about a disease and how quickly that information is disseminated to the public affect the final size of an outbreak.

The model, published in the journal PloS (Public Library of Science) One finds that in the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore, doubling the rate at which infected people removed themselves from the larger population by quarantining themselves or seeking treatment would have cut the total number of infected people from 238 to 116. If infected individuals had removed themselves at half the actual rate, the number of cases would have ballooned to nearly 800.

“Infectious diseases are like weeds,” Drake said. “They grow multiplicatively – two infected people, four infected, eight and so forth. So that means you have exponential returns in your ability to control the outbreak the earlier you catch it.”

Drake said that with modifications to account for differences in factors such as transmission rate, the model can be applied to other emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza.

He said that part of what makes the model so useful is its simplicity. Rather than relying on a complicated computer model that takes into account tens or even hundreds of variables, Drake’s model has the potential to estimate outbreak size based on four variables: the transmission rate, infectious period, the removal rate and the rate at which the public health response begins to produce diminishing returns.

Drake points out that during the Singapore outbreak, there was little evidence that the public health response began to produce diminishing returns. He said this finding suggests that although an aggressive public health response is costly, a sluggish one is far worse.

“An outbreak is very sensitive to how hard you hit it at the very beginning,” Drake said. “The important thing is to gain ground as quickly as possible.”

Sam Fahmy | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.uga.edu

More articles from Studies and Analyses:

nachricht Win-win strategies for climate and food security
02.10.2017 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

nachricht The personality factor: How to foster the sharing of research data
06.09.2017 | ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft

All articles from Studies and Analyses >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Neutron star merger directly observed for the first time

University of Maryland researchers contribute to historic detection of gravitational waves and light created by event

On August 17, 2017, at 12:41:04 UTC, scientists made the first direct observation of a merger between two neutron stars--the dense, collapsed cores that remain...

Im Focus: Breaking: the first light from two neutron stars merging

Seven new papers describe the first-ever detection of light from a gravitational wave source. The event, caused by two neutron stars colliding and merging together, was dubbed GW170817 because it sent ripples through space-time that reached Earth on 2017 August 17. Around the world, hundreds of excited astronomers mobilized quickly and were able to observe the event using numerous telescopes, providing a wealth of new data.

Previous detections of gravitational waves have all involved the merger of two black holes, a feat that won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics earlier this month....

Im Focus: Smart sensors for efficient processes

Material defects in end products can quickly result in failures in many areas of industry, and have a massive impact on the safe use of their products. This is why, in the field of quality assurance, intelligent, nondestructive sensor systems play a key role. They allow testing components and parts in a rapid and cost-efficient manner without destroying the actual product or changing its surface. Experts from the Fraunhofer IZFP in Saarbrücken will be presenting two exhibits at the Blechexpo in Stuttgart from 7–10 November 2017 that allow fast, reliable, and automated characterization of materials and detection of defects (Hall 5, Booth 5306).

When quality testing uses time-consuming destructive test methods, it can result in enormous costs due to damaging or destroying the products. And given that...

Im Focus: Cold molecules on collision course

Using a new cooling technique MPQ scientists succeed at observing collisions in a dense beam of cold and slow dipolar molecules.

How do chemical reactions proceed at extremely low temperatures? The answer requires the investigation of molecular samples that are cold, dense, and slow at...

Im Focus: Shrinking the proton again!

Scientists from the Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics, using high precision laser spectroscopy of atomic hydrogen, confirm the surprisingly small value of the proton radius determined from muonic hydrogen.

It was one of the breakthroughs of the year 2010: Laser spectroscopy of muonic hydrogen resulted in a value for the proton charge radius that was significantly...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

ASEAN Member States discuss the future role of renewable energy

17.10.2017 | Event News

World Health Summit 2017: International experts set the course for the future of Global Health

10.10.2017 | Event News

Climate Engineering Conference 2017 Opens in Berlin

10.10.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

NRL clarifies valley polarization for electronic and optoelectronic technologies

20.10.2017 | Interdisciplinary Research

Metallic nanoparticles will help to determine the percentage of volatile compounds

20.10.2017 | Materials Sciences

Shallow soils promote savannas in South America

20.10.2017 | Earth Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>