Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

On the Home Field with Twelve Men?

04.06.2008
Study of TU Dortmund Shows: In Soccer the Home Advantage has been Becoming Less Important Over the Last Years

At this European championship, Austria and Switzerland regard themselves as having the upper hand. Due to the vehement support of the ”twelfth man on the field” – the home fans – the alpine kickers hope for the crucial kick for their game.

And because of the short travelling distance the German team could also profit from the home advantage. But this can only be an advantage when it really exists. Eva Heinrichs, a future diploma statistician at Technische Universität Dortmund, has scientifically examined the “myth home advantage” in her final paper.

After analysing all games of the premier and second German national league as well as the Spanish, Italian and English premier leagues since 1963, she is certain that: a certain home advantage is in fact existing but compared to the 70ties and 80ties it is getting smaller and smaller.

In the premier league season 87/88 an average of 55.8 percent of all games was won by the home team, it went down to 47.8 percent afterwards. During the season 06/07 it even sank to 43.8 percent. That means that less than half of the games are still won on the home field – barely a trace of home advantage. In this respect the premier and the second league show the same tendencies: the turnaround emerged at the end of the 80ties and the beginning of the 90ties. Until then the home advantage had been existing and strong, but its importance has been significantly dropping since then.

But what are the reasons for the decline of the home advantage? Supported by her two tutors, Prof. Dr. Roland Fried and Prof. Dr. Joachim Kunert, Eva Heinrichs found several factors for the reduction of the chances of the home team. On the one hand the number of goals during a game sank. In the early days of the national league an average of 3.5 goals were made in one game. But in the last years this number dropped to less than 3. At the same time the number of home goals went down, whereas the number of away goals nearly remained the same. The results reflect this findings: less home victories but more away victories and ties. For the Dortmund statistician this is proof for the fact that the increasing performance concentration in professional soccer diministes the home advantage.

Eva Heinrichs also checked her findings on the European level and examined 45,996 games of the Spanish, Italian and English leagues based on the same statistic method (19,056 England, 14,580 Spain, 12,360 Italy). And here it also shows that the home advantage is continuously getting smaller. The numbers of away victories, away goals and ties increase and the number of home victories and home goals drops. The Italian league is the only exception. Here the number of home victories has nearly remained the same over the years and the other indices for a home advantage do not always correspond to the other leagues. But statistician Eva Heinrichs has an explanation: in the 70ties and 80ties Italian was famous for its defensive soccer. The absolute numbers and the relation of away and home victories or away and home goals show that the Italian soccer has just adapt to the “European level”. Thus, it can also be applied to Italy: the immense home advantage is a myth – but for a long time!

However, for one phenomenon with regard to home advantage, Eva Heinrichs couldn’t find an explanation. With statistic methods she was able to clearly detect a level shifting in nearly all time series – the statistician calls it structural interruption. And in all leagues this turnaround occurred at the end of the 80ties and the beginning of the 90ties. Therefore, something must have happened in European soccer at that time. Something that influenced the home advantage in a negative (or positive with regard to the away team) way. But although the statistician discussed this phenomenon in many forums, even the internet community was not able to give a conclusive explanation.

Ole Luennemann | alfa
Further information:
http://www.tu-dortmund.de

More articles from Studies and Analyses:

nachricht New study: How does Europe become a leading player for software and IT services?
03.04.2017 | Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI)

nachricht Reusable carbon nanotubes could be the water filter of the future, says RIT study
30.03.2017 | Rochester Institute of Technology

All articles from Studies and Analyses >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Deep inside Galaxy M87

The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.

Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...

Im Focus: A Quantum Low Pass for Photons

Physicists in Garching observe novel quantum effect that limits the number of emitted photons.

The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...

Im Focus: Microprocessors based on a layer of just three atoms

Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.

Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...

Im Focus: Quantum-physical Model System

Computer-assisted methods aid Heidelberg physicists in reproducing experiment with ultracold atoms

Two researchers at Heidelberg University have developed a model system that enables a better understanding of the processes in a quantum-physical experiment...

Im Focus: Glacier bacteria’s contribution to carbon cycling

Glaciers might seem rather inhospitable environments. However, they are home to a diverse and vibrant microbial community. It’s becoming increasingly clear that they play a bigger role in the carbon cycle than previously thought.

A new study, now published in the journal Nature Geoscience, shows how microbial communities in melting glaciers contribute to the Earth’s carbon cycle, a...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Expert meeting “Health Business Connect” will connect international medical technology companies

20.04.2017 | Event News

Wenn der Computer das Gehirn austrickst

18.04.2017 | Event News

7th International Conference on Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaics in Freiburg on April 3-5, 2017

03.04.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

New quantum liquid crystals may play role in future of computers

21.04.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

A promising target for kidney fibrosis

21.04.2017 | Health and Medicine

Light rays from a supernova bent by the curvature of space-time around a galaxy

21.04.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>