Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

New model could help fill data gap in predicting historical air pollution exposure

13.09.2012
Study also shows that air quality improves when unemployment rises

In a study that analyzed relationships between air quality and unemployment levels, a Tufts University researcher has developed a new statistical model that retrospectively estimates air pollution exposure for previous time periods where such information is not available.

Mary Davis, an associate professor of urban and environmental policy and planning at Tufts University School of Arts and Sciences, analyzed traffic-related air pollution levels and unemployment rates in four separate regions of California for which extensive air monitoring data was available: San Francisco Bay, Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and the south-central coast between 1980 and 2000.

Davis focused on predicting trends in pollutants that are emitted by engines and known to negatively impact human health—haze, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide. She integrated into her model other variables such as weather, population density, unemployment levels, and environmental regulations. Air pollution data came from the California Air Resources Board.

The unemployment data was provided by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. It showed broad shifts in overall unemployment with highs in the early 1980s and 1990s. Unemployment levels for the trucking industry, which were tracked separately, matched the overall trend.

Davis's analysis revealed a pattern. During the highest periods of unemployment—early 1980s and early 1990s—concentrations of the three pollutants decreased in small but discernible amounts for every one percent increase in unemployment. The reason for the decrease, she says, was due to slowdowns in commercial trucking and car trips to work, shopping malls, or recreational destinations.

Importantly, Davis says the model allows epidemiologists to look backwards in time to predict public exposure to pollution in a geographical area. This data would ultimately help researchers discern public health trends.

"We can retrospectively estimate exposure levels for previous periods where direct data is lacking," says Davis, author of the paper titled "Recessions and Health: The Impact of Economic Trends on Air Pollution in California," which will be published in the October issue of the journal "American Journal of Public Health" (available online on August 16). "Without an accurate and historically relevant exposure model it is difficult to obtain estimates of lifetime human exposure which is critical in studies of chronic disease," she adds.

As an example of how the model could be used, Davis applied her formula to the years between 2006 and 2010—when unemployment rose from 4.9 percent to 12.4 percent in California. According to the model, there would have been a 16.8 percent decline in ambient concentrations of carbon monoxide and a 12.2 percent decline in concentrations of nitrogen dioxide.

Her findings were not independently validated but Davis says that "the comparison provides perspective on what the predicted change in air pollution would be during a major economic downturn based on the results of the model."

Davis also looked for relationships between unemployment in the trucking industry and air quality. With trucking, she included estimates for haze, which is a marker for diesel-powered truck emissions. Here, she found a similar pattern of lower predicted pollution levels between 2006 and 2010.

Davis says that the results of her work provide evidence linking the economy to air pollution. In a 2010 study of air pollution levels and economic trends in New Jersey between 1971 and 2003, Davis found a similar relationship between pollution and unemployment.

"This is evidence that cyclical economic activity has an impact on concentrations of pollutants that the general public is exposed to," says Davis. "There is a net benefit for public health in terms of air pollution when unemployment rises."

In the context of environmental policy, Davis suggested that environmental regulating agencies should consider the relationship between air quality and unemployment as they evaluate the effectiveness of clean air regulations. "Air quality regulations have an impact but they don't happen in a vacuum," she continues. "Policies aimed at improving air quality may act to speed up or slow down the underlying trend set by the economy."

Davis, who is participating in a National Institutes of Health-funded study of the trucking industry, air pollution and cancer rates with a team of Harvard University scientists, said the methodology she used in this research could be applied to other regions of the country where data is available.

Davis ME. Recessions and Health: The Impact of Economic Trends on Air Pollution in California. Am J Public Health. 2012; 102(10):1951-1956

Tufts University, located on three Massachusetts campuses in Boston, Medford/Somerville, and Grafton, and in Talloires, France, is recognized among the premier research universities in the United States. Tufts enjoys a global reputation for academic excellence and for the preparation of students as leaders in a wide range of professions. A growing number of innovative teaching and research initiatives span all Tufts campuses, and collaboration among the faculty and students in the undergraduate, graduate, and professional programs across the university's schools is widely encouraged.

Alex Reid | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.tufts.edu

More articles from Studies and Analyses:

nachricht New study: How does Europe become a leading player for software and IT services?
03.04.2017 | Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI)

nachricht Reusable carbon nanotubes could be the water filter of the future, says RIT study
30.03.2017 | Rochester Institute of Technology

All articles from Studies and Analyses >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Making lightweight construction suitable for series production

More and more automobile companies are focusing on body parts made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). However, manufacturing and repair costs must be further reduced in order to make CFRP more economical in use. Together with the Volkswagen AG and five other partners in the project HolQueSt 3D, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) has developed laser processes for the automatic trimming, drilling and repair of three-dimensional components.

Automated manufacturing processes are the basis for ultimately establishing the series production of CFRP components. In the project HolQueSt 3D, the LZH has...

Im Focus: Wonder material? Novel nanotube structure strengthens thin films for flexible electronics

Reflecting the structure of composites found in nature and the ancient world, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have synthesized thin carbon nanotube (CNT) textiles that exhibit both high electrical conductivity and a level of toughness that is about fifty times higher than copper films, currently used in electronics.

"The structural robustness of thin metal films has significant importance for the reliable operation of smart skin and flexible electronics including...

Im Focus: Deep inside Galaxy M87

The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.

Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...

Im Focus: A Quantum Low Pass for Photons

Physicists in Garching observe novel quantum effect that limits the number of emitted photons.

The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...

Im Focus: Microprocessors based on a layer of just three atoms

Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.

Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Fighting drug resistant tuberculosis – InfectoGnostics meets MYCO-NET² partners in Peru

28.04.2017 | Event News

Expert meeting “Health Business Connect” will connect international medical technology companies

20.04.2017 | Event News

Wenn der Computer das Gehirn austrickst

18.04.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Wireless power can drive tiny electronic devices in the GI tract

28.04.2017 | Medical Engineering

Ice cave in Transylvania yields window into region's past

28.04.2017 | Earth Sciences

Nose2Brain – Better Therapy for Multiple Sclerosis

28.04.2017 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>